With less than half of expected ballots counted in Shasta’s election, some likely winners emerge while others remain uncertain

It’s likely that less than half of the ballots from the Nov. 3 election have been counted so far, according to a Shasta Scout analysis that compares the latest Shasta County election results to voting trends from the last few midterm elections.

California’s prolonged vote-counting process can make determining winners, especially in smaller local races, a moving target. But some likely results are becoming clear in Shasta. 

Frontrunners for each race so far include Mike Gallagher for Shasta District 5 supervisor; Russ Wenham, Tenessa Audette and Mark Mezzano for Redding City Council; and Bruce Ross, Michele Tyson, Authur Gorman and Teresa Roberts for the Shasta County Office of Education Board. 

Measures E and F also appear likely to pass, while Measure C is failing. 

For the past four midterm elections, roughly 65% of registered voters cast their ballots. If this year’s voter turnout follows past trends, then it’s likely Shasta still has more than double the number of ballots left to count.

In California, it often takes weeks for final election results to emerge, largely because of the significant number of vote-by-mail ballots that must be processed after Election Day. At the local level, several mishaps on Election Day and night have further delayed the vote-counting process, leaving Shasta County as the final county in California to finish counting precinct votes. 

Preliminary results from final precinct counts — or counts of ballots cast in person on Election Day — combined with results from vote-by-mail ballots processed prior to Nov. 3 were posted shortly before 8 a.m. this morning, making up a total of about 32,000 ballots counted so far. Election staffers are now working on counting votes cast in ballot drop boxes on Election Day. 

Election officials in California have 30 days from Election Day to finish counting ballots and to certify election results, and that deadline falls on Dec. 3. 

What else do we know about outcomes of local major races? 

While results are incomplete and vote counting is still taking place, there are some local preliminary results that give strong clues into how final results may pan out. 

For Shasta County District 5 Supervisor, Gallagher is a ways ahead of his competitor, incumbent Chris Kelstrom, with 57% of the vote. But it would take less than 900 votes for Kelstrom to catch up, something that’s possible with thousands more ballots left to count. 

In the race for three Redding City Council seats, civil engineer and Redding planning commissioner Wenham and current council member Audette appear most likely to secure seats on the council, with Wenham leading at 22% and Audette trailing behind at 19.5%. With tens of thousands of votes left to count, these leads could shift, though it’s fairly certain that the race will play out between the top four candidates, which also include Mezzano and business owner Christina Prosperi. Audette has already announced on Facebook that she has won the election, despite the many votes that remain to be counted.

The Shasta County Office of Education Board, which has four seats up for grabs, also appears to have several likely successors: Redding School District Board member Ross and incumbents Gorman and Roberts. Election activist Tyson is leading for the fourth spot, with Nancy Walker following closely behind.

Among the clearest outcomes so far can be seen when it comes to local measures, where fewer choices make results clear more quickly. 

Measure C, which would fund construction and improvement projects at Shasta College, is failing, with 53.5% of Shasta residents voting against it. Those totals could shift to allow the measure to succeed given the thousands of votes left to tally. 

Results seem more certain with Measure E, which is passing with nearly 66% of the vote and would prevent the county from using eminent domain to transfer property between two private owners. Similarly, Measure F, which would alter the process of the county board filling vacancies for elected officials, is passing with 67.5% of the vote. 

Have information or a correction to share? Email us: editor@shastascout.org